The probability of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands is real. The threat level at 4 (substantial) therefore remains applicable. This is due in part to the persistently high threat from jihadism. It also appears that young people with sympathy for right-wing terrorist and jihadist views are radicalizing online more frequently and more quickly. The speed at which this is happening is alarming. This is contained in the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security's (NCTV) December 2024 Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands (DTN), published today. This threat assessment was compiled based on information from the AIVD and others.
The continued high threat of jihadism is illustrated by the sharp increase in the number of jihadist attacks and arrests in Europe in 2024. The jihadist threat comes primarily from Islamic State (ISIS). The war in Gaza is a major driver of the jihadist threat in Europe. Jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS exploit the conflict in their propaganda, calling on their supporters to carry out attacks in the West against "Christian and Jewish" targets.
Furthermore, across Europe there is a potential threat posed by individuals released from detention after a terrorism conviction. Starting next year, this may also become more prevalent in the Netherlands: starting then, people with a higher threat profile than many previously released terrorism convicts will be released.
For the first time in the Netherlands, eight sovereigns prosecuted for suspicion of terrorist offenses.
They are suspected of participating in a terrorist organization, three of them also of intending to engage in a violent confrontation with local authority figures and making arrests. Weapons were found on several suspects. Sovereigns are a prominent subgroup within the anti-establishment movement. They declare independence from the Dutch government and believe that laws and regulations do not apply to them. Even after these arrests, a threat of violence still emanates from the small group of violence-prone sovereigns.
The rapid online radicalization of young people is a major component of the terrorist threat. There are increasing numbers of young people in the Netherlands, some as young as 14 years old, active in right-wing terrorist and jihadist online environments. The rate at which these children and young people are radicalizing online is worrisome. There is a real chance that individuals active in this online milieu will put their money where their mouth is and commit an act of violence. Dozens of Dutch youths between the ages of 12 and 20 have come under scrutiny by the police and the Openbaar Ministerie Service for, among other things, spreading terrorist propaganda; some also for preparing attacks. Jihadist youth, in particular, come into contact online relatively easily with members of ISIS who try to encourage them to defect or attack. This online increase in radicalization increases the risk of terrorist violence.
The Netherlands Terrorism Threat Assessment (DTN) is an analysis of national and international terrorist threats against the Netherlands and Dutch interests abroad. The NCTV compiles the DTN two to three times a year. Information from the AIVD forms important input for the threat assessment. Read more about the threat assessment more about the threat assessment.
