Artificial intelligence (AI) is a comprehensive technology that will fundamentally change our society. AI has the potential to make our lives easier in many ways and can help solve numerous societal problems. At the same time, the development of AI also has intended and unintended impacts on our national security. Very likely, the development of AI reinforces various existing threats to our national security. That is the conclusion of a joint analysis by the AIVD, the MIVD and the NCTV published on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. The purpose of the publication is to provide insight into the potential impact of AI with a nuanced and detailed picture for a broad audience.
AI enables machines to perform human skills such as reasoning, learning, planning and creative thinking. If machines perform such tasks faster or more efficiently, it can make people's lives easier and help solve societal problems.
While AI is not a danger per se, the development of AI can have intended and unintended impacts on our national security. For example, several states are investing in developing and applying AI in the military domain. Currently, Western military technology is still superior to that of other countries such as China and Russia. This technological superiority contributes to the current military balance of power and thus to the territorial security of the Netherlands, its allies and the international legal order. If other countries are better able to deploy AI in the military domain, this balance of power may shift. The development of AI also increases the cyber capabilities of various actors, both in the military domain and beyond. Although AI's influence on cyber attacks is not clearly present, AI may have a facilitating role in existing cyber attacks.
In addition to the high technology developments surrounding AI, many applications of AI have also become increasingly accessible. Generative AI can theoretically be used by anyone to create malware, phishing mails, disinformation and propaganda. This also potentially increases the threat from various non-state actors such as terrorist groups. Very likely, al-Qaeda and ISIS are already using generative AI to manufacture propaganda and this is likely to further increase its volume and reach.
AI and its applications will continue to evolve at lightning speed. Two developments associated with the tech race waged by companies and states affect the extent to which AI contributes to national security threats. First, AI applications that now require a lot of high-level expertise and a lot of (financial) resources are likely to become more widely and easily available over time. This will increase the number of state and non-state actors who can abuse such AI applications.
Second, AI applications are likely to become increasingly part of our economy and society. This is especially true in the digital domain, but due to developments in robotics and AI increasingly in the physical domain as well. This will provide economic and societal benefits on the one hand but will also create new vulnerabilities that malicious actors will try to exploit.
The development of autonomously operating AI that can independently gain control over humans is not currently seen as a threat to national security. The idea of AI gaining control over humans remains controversial and, for now, the likelihood that it could affect national security at any time is very low. The impact of AI on national security in the coming years is likely to be determined primarily by malicious actors who deliberately use AI applications to achieve their own goals at the expense of Dutch national security interests.
